FC Augsburg vs Bayern München – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 41%, yet in-form Bayern München provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs Bayern München fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Bayern München at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayern München — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bayern München have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayern München's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bayern München's 2.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bayern München have the better historical record — 7 wins from 10 previous contests against 3 for FC Augsburg.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with FC Augsburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 77%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 60% and Bayern München 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 63% | Bayern München 94%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.73 xG and Bayern München 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.023 / defence 0.900 | Bayern München attack 1.310 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 FC Augsburg games / 35 Bayern München games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 41% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Bayern München 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bayern München (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | Bayern München 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 41% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Augsburg 1.73 / Bayern München 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.023 / def 0.900 | Bayern München attack 1.310 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Bayern München xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayern München kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at WWK Arena.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 41% chance of winning, Bayern München a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
Record (10 meetings): FC Augsburg 3W | Draws 0 | Bayern München 7W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayern München in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Bayern München (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 1.02x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
41%
2.45
25%
4.03
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.31
1.58
Bayern München xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.58 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 13W 7D 15L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayern München's form line: 29W 5D 1L from 35 games, 2.63 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bayern München, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 1.32 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 14W 3D 0L from 17 away games — 2.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 3.63 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Bayern München in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Bayern München
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayern München in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 13W 7D 15L in their last 35 games (1.31 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 29W 5D 1L in their last 35 (2.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.71 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.65 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bayern München in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when Bayern München won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 3, Bayern München have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 53%, Bayern München 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for FC Augsburg and 88% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bayern München in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Augsburg's games and 59% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Augsburg's matches and 88% of Bayern München's.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayern München tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.