🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Werder Bremen make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MHPArena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Werder Bremen away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in VfB Stuttgart's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfB Stuttgart lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 4–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 61% versus Werder Bremen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | Werder Bremen 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.83 xG and Werder Bremen 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.062 / defence 0.762 | Werder Bremen attack 0.841 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.452. VfB Stuttgart's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 VfB Stuttgart games / 64 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 58% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 18%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Werder Bremen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: VfB Stuttgart 30% | Werder Bremen 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights