VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 46%, yet the head-to-head data favours FC Augsburg — this VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg host FC Augsburg at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfL Wolfsburg 1.10 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 60% of FC Augsburg's (from VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, FC Augsburg have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches against 1 for VfL Wolfsburg.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 FC Augsburg — a FC Augsburg win.
The H2H data backs the away side. FC Augsburg have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Augsburg trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 71% and FC Augsburg 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 62% | FC Augsburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.76 xG and FC Augsburg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.957 / defence 1.268 | FC Augsburg attack 0.758 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.388. FC Augsburg's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Augsburg's projected output up. Data: built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 56 games and FC Augsburg's last 56.
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 46% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 28%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.17 | Draw 3.82 | FC Augsburg 3.60. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Wolfsburg 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 46% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.76 / FC Augsburg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.957 / def 1.268 | FC Augsburg attack 0.758 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Augsburg xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg 2 - 3 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 46% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.96) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 56 games and FC Augsburg's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.82
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.09
1.33
FC Augsburg xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
5%
20.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.33 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 15D 25L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (18W 14D 24L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.12 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 5W 10D 12L across their last 27 home games, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 27 away games (7W 6D 14L).
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.07 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
FC Augsburg's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 0.93 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Augsburg have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Apr 2022, when FC Augsburg won FC Augsburg 3-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
6
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, FC Augsburg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 78%, FC Augsburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for VfL Wolfsburg and 59% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 48% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 59% of FC Augsburg's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 70% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.76 xG and FC Augsburg 1.33 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against FC Augsburg attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 46% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 28%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 62%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.12 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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