VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Borussia Mönchengladbach arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 4 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended VfL Wolfsburg 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a VfL Wolfsburg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 72% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 64% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.47 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.810 / defence 1.279 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.829 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.464. VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating of 1.279 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output up. Data: built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 64 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 64.
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 36% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 40%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.78 | Draw 4.13 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Wolfsburg 90% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 31 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 36% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.47 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.810 / def 1.279 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.829 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach FAQs
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 31) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 36% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.81) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.83x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 64 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
36%
2.78
24%
4.13
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.02
1.55
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.55 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 64 games, going 17W 16D 31L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.19 PPG from 64 outings (20W 16D 28L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.19 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 5W 10D 17L across their last 32 home games, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 7D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.42 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg (Home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Form FAQs
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 17W 16D 31L in their last 64 games (1.05 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 16D 28L in their last 64 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 0.78 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Mönchengladbach won Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for VfL Wolfsburg, 59% for Borussia Mönchengladbach — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for VfL Wolfsburg and 59% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 59% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 59% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 72% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VfL Wolfsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 31, as VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.47 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.28 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 36% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 40%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 64%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.05 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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