VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hamburger SV travel to MHPArena to take on VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, VfB Stuttgart stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Hamburger SV have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Hamburger SV's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
VfB Stuttgart are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Hamburger SV 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Hamburger SV — a Hamburger SV win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 61% and Hamburger SV 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 71% | Hamburger SV 64%). Note also that Hamburger SV surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while VfB Stuttgart recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG and Hamburger SV 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.938 / defence 0.814 | Hamburger SV attack 0.809 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.459. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 62 games and Hamburger SV's last 28.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 22%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.87 | Draw 4.07 | Hamburger SV 4.55. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 40% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 29 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.65 / Hamburger SV 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.938 / def 0.814 | Hamburger SV attack 0.809 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Hamburger SV xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
VfB Stuttgart 4 - 0 Hamburger SV.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 29) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 53% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.94) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 62 games and Hamburger SV's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.07
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.61
0.96
Hamburger SV xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
4%
23.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.96 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 30W 13D 19L from 62 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 23W 21D 18L across 62 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.66 PPG, Hamburger SV on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 17W 3D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 10W 8D 12L across their last 30 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.77 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 65%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs Hamburger SV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 30W 13D 19L in their last 62 games (1.66 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 23W 21D 18L in their last 62 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Hamburger SV away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.80 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from June 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Apr 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SV.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
0
Draws
2
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Hamburger SV have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Hamburger SV 1-0 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 53%, Hamburger SV 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for VfB Stuttgart and 67% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 60% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 67% of Hamburger SV's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 80% of Hamburger SV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hamburger SV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Hamburger SV 4-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG and Hamburger SV 0.96 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hamburger SV landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Hamburger SV attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 22%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 71%, Hamburger SV 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.66 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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