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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Dortmund face Bayer Leverkusen.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Signal Iduna Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 8W 1D 1L at Signal Iduna Park — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park.

Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Borussia Dortmund have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Borussia Dortmund: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Bayer Leverkusen, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Borussia Dortmund winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 61% and Bayer Leverkusen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 64% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.27 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.333 / defence 0.877 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.101 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.458. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Borussia Dortmund games / 62 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 57% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 23%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.75 | Draw 5.00 | Bayer Leverkusen 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 60% BTTS from recent games.

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