VfB Stuttgart 2-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfB Stuttgart face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund at Stuttgart Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
VfB Stuttgart — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, VfB Stuttgart have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Dortmund away from home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfB Stuttgart 2.10 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 2 for Borussia Dortmund and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended VfB Stuttgart 3–3 Borussia Dortmund — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 66% and Borussia Dortmund 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 68% | Borussia Dortmund 68%). Note also that Borussia Dortmund surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while VfB Stuttgart recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.48 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.252 / defence 0.932 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.358 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.996 / away 1.543. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack rating of 1.252 — their 2.48 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack rating of 1.358, which lifts their away xG to 1.95. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 44 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 44.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 50% | Draw 20% | Borussia Dortmund 31%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.01 | Draw 5.10 | Borussia Dortmund 3.28. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS Yes probability 79% | Total xG 4.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% — both xG figures (2.48 / 1.95) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.44 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 79% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 70% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 50% | Draw 20% | Borussia Dortmund 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% (Under 18%) | BTTS Yes 79% (No 21%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.48 / Borussia Dortmund 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.252 / def 0.932 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.358 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.996 / away 1.543 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Borussia Dortmund xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 50% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 31% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.48. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 44 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.1%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.0%), 1-1 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
50%
2.01
20%
5.10
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
3 – 1
5.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
4.44
1.95
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.01
50%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.27
21%
BTTS No
4.75
Clean Sheet
14%
7.05
8%
11.99
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
3%
39.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.95 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 4.44.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 10D 18L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 2.09 PPG from 44 outings (28W 8D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across their last 21 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 21 away games (10W 5D 6L). That's a step down from their 2.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Dortmund's recent record.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.34 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs Borussia Dortmund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 16W 10D 18L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 28W 8D 8L in their last 44 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.67 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.67 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won Borussia Dortmund 5-0 VfB Stuttgart.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 67%, Borussia Dortmund 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for VfB Stuttgart and 62% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 62% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 62% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 90% of Borussia Dortmund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out Borussia Dortmund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.48 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.95 xG, a combined 4.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.36 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 50% | Draw 20% | Borussia Dortmund 31%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 68%, Borussia Dortmund 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with VfB Stuttgart winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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