1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Heidenheim's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Voith-Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Voith-Arena. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. VfB Stuttgart are 1.40 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.40 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Heidenheim — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 51% versus VfB Stuttgart 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 58% | VfB Stuttgart 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.67 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.983 / defence 1.402 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.207 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.968 / away 1.593. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 2.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 1. FC Heidenheim games / 43 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 22% | Draw 18% | VfB Stuttgart 59%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 4.55 | Draw 5.56 | VfB Stuttgart 1.69. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 2.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 22% | Draw 18% | VfB Stuttgart 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 76% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.67 / VfB Stuttgart 2.69 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.983 / def 1.402 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.207 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.968 / away 1.593 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
2.69
VfB Stuttgart xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
1. FC Heidenheim 2 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 22% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 59% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.21x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.69.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 7.7%. Close behind: 1-3 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
22%
4.45
18%
5.46
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
2 – 2
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
4.36
2.69
VfB Stuttgart xG
4.45
22%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.16
Clean Sheet
7%
14.79
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
2%
65.88
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.69 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 4.36.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 21W 11D 11L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 16W 10D 17L from 43 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.35 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2.19 PPG from 21 outings (14W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 5D 10L from 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.74 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 67%.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 21W 11D 11L in their last 43 games (1.72 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.19 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.10 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 52%, VfB Stuttgart 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 76% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 71% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 76% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat VfB Stuttgart 2-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.67 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.69 xG, a combined 4.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart landed 2.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.98 / defence 1.40 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.21 / defence 0.86, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 22% | Draw 18% | VfB Stuttgart 59%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Heidenheim win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 58%, VfB Stuttgart 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.72 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.