FC Augsburg 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours 1899 Hoffenheim (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Augsburg face 1899 Hoffenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as FC Augsburg welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to WWK Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour 1899 Hoffenheim — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FC Augsburg have won 1, 1899 Hoffenheim 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with FC Augsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 66% and 1899 Hoffenheim 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 61% | 1899 Hoffenheim 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.55 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 2.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.917 / defence 1.224 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.324 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.996 / away 1.543. 1899 Hoffenheim have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 2.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 FC Augsburg games / 44 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 23% | Draw 19% | 1899 Hoffenheim 58%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 4.35 | Draw 5.26 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1.72. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 2.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | 1899 Hoffenheim 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 23% | Draw 19% | 1899 Hoffenheim 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 73% | xG FC Augsburg 1.55 / 1899 Hoffenheim 2.50 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.917 / def 1.224 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.324 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.996 / away 1.543 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
2.50
1899 Hoffenheim xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
FC Augsburg 1 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 23% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 58% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (4 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 0 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.92x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 2.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
23%
4.42
19%
5.18
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
4.05
2.50
1899 Hoffenheim xG
4.42
23%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.65
Clean Sheet
8%
12.18
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
2%
53.88
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 2.50 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 12W 10D 22L from 44 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 22L across 44 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.05 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 8W 4D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.59 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 73%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 12W 10D 22L in their last 44 games (1.05 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 16W 6D 22L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.36 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
5
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 59%, 1899 Hoffenheim 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Augsburg) and 59% (1899 Hoffenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Augsburg's games and 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Augsburg's matches and 59% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 11, as FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.55 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 2.50 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.92 / defence 1.22 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.32 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 23% | Draw 19% | 1899 Hoffenheim 58%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 61%, 1899 Hoffenheim 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.05 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.