Werder Bremen 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 38%, yet in-form Eintracht Frankfurt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to wohninvest WESERSTADION to take on Werder Bremen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's home record at wohninvest WESERSTADION: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Werder Bremen's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Werder Bremen, 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 66% and Eintracht Frankfurt 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 68% | Eintracht Frankfurt 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.60 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.003 / defence 1.002 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.012 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.961 / away 1.492. Data: 44 Werder Bremen games / 44 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 38% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eintracht Frankfurt (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 38% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Werder Bremen 1.60 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.003 / def 1.002 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.012 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.961 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Werder Bremen 2 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 38% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (4 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 1.00x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.57
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.11
1.51
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.51 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 13W 7D 24L from 44 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 11L across 44 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 8W 2D 12L from 22 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 6W 8D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.66 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 13W 7D 24L in their last 44 games (1.05 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 17W 16D 11L in their last 44 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.18 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
4
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Werder Bremen at 64%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Werder Bremen and 64% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Werder Bremen's games and 73% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Werder Bremen's matches and 64% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 11, as Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.60 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.51 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.01 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 38% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 68%, Eintracht Frankfurt 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.