VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfB Stuttgart face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.90 for Bayer Leverkusen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Bayer Leverkusen and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Jan 2026, ended VfB Stuttgart 4–1 Bayer Leverkusen — a VfB Stuttgart win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 33 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and Bayer Leverkusen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 71% | Bayer Leverkusen 61%). Note also that Bayer Leverkusen surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while VfB Stuttgart recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.47 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.009 / defence 0.774 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.078 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.485. VfB Stuttgart have a tight defence (rating 0.774), which is pulling Bayer Leverkusen's projected output down. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 66 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 66.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 31%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.38 | Draw 3.79 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 40% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.47 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.009 / def 0.774 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.078 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Bayer Leverkusen xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 42% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.01) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.08x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 66 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.79
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.71
1.24
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.24 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 31W 15D 20L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 36W 19D 11L from 66 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.92 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 33 home games (18W 5D 10L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 17W 12D 4L from their last 33 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.09 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 67%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 31W 15D 20L in their last 66 games (1.64 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 36W 19D 11L in their last 66 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.79 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won Bayer Leverkusen 1-4 VfB Stuttgart on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
3
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for VfB Stuttgart and 61% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 91% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bayer Leverkusen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.47 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.01 / defence 0.77 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.08 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 31%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 71%, Bayer Leverkusen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.64 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 33
All Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →