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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bayer Leverkusen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.47 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.01 / defence 0.77 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.08 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 31%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 71%, Bayer Leverkusen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.64 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights