Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Berlin face Eintracht Frankfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin in Bundesliga (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Union Berlin have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union Berlin 1.20 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Union Berlin have won 4, Eintracht Frankfurt 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Union Berlin 4–3 Eintracht Frankfurt — a Union Berlin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 54% and Eintracht Frankfurt 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 54% | Eintracht Frankfurt 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.27 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.935 / defence 1.077 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.261 / defence 1.479. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.470. Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating of 1.479 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Berlin's projected output up. Eintracht Frankfurt have an above-average attack rating of 1.261, which lifts their away xG to 2.00. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 54 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 54.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 44% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.25 | Draw 4.67 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 78% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% — both xG figures (2.27 / 2.00) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 44% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 78%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 70% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Frankfurt 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 44% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% (Under 20%) | BTTS Yes 78% (No 22%) | xG Union Berlin 2.27 / Eintracht Frankfurt 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.935 / def 1.077 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.261 / def 1.479 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
78%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 44% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 34% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.94x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 54 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (7.2%), 1-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
44%
2.25
21%
4.67
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
4.27
2.00
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.61
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
10%
9.73
Win to Nil
6%
16.56
4%
28.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Union Berlin and 2.00 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 16W 17D 21L from 54 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 15L across 54 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Union Berlin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 8W 11D 8L from their last 27 home games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 10W 9D 8L across their last 27 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 2.00 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 69%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 16W 17D 21L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.30 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won Union Berlin 0-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
4
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 4, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 63%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Union Berlin and 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Union Berlin's games and 74% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Union Berlin's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 93% of Eintracht Frankfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 21, as Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.27 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.00 xG, a combined 4.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.26 / defence 1.48, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 44% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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