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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.64 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.12 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 28% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 45%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights