Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Union Berlin face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (matchday 23). Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Union Berlin's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Union Berlin's games and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger record — 5 wins to Union Berlin's 0, with 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Union Berlin 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen — a Bayer Leverkusen win.
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 54% and Bayer Leverkusen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 54% | Bayer Leverkusen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.852 / defence 1.053 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.123 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.388. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 56 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 55.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 28% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 45%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.58 | Draw 3.66 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.23. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 70% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 28% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Union Berlin 1.26 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.852 / def 1.053 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.123 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Bayer Leverkusen xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 28% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.12x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 56 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
28%
3.58
27%
3.66
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.90
1.64
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
5%
18.49
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.64 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 16W 17D 22L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 31W 15D 9L from 55 games, 1.96 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.22 PPG from their last 27 home games (7W 12D 8L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 14W 10D 3L from their last 27 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.09 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 31W 15D 9L in their last 55 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.22 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 Union Berlin on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
3
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Union Berlin, 74% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Union Berlin and 63% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union Berlin's games and 74% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Union Berlin's matches and 63% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 93% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.64 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.12 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 28% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 45%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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