VfB Stuttgart 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VfB Stuttgart (74%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as VfB Stuttgart face 1. FC Köln.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stuttgart Arena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga (matchday 23). Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
VfB Stuttgart's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfB Stuttgart's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
1. FC Köln's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. VfB Stuttgart's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with 1. FC Köln managing 1 and 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended VfB Stuttgart 2–0 1. FC Köln — a VfB Stuttgart win.
The head-to-head data gives VfB Stuttgart an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 66% versus 1. FC Köln 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 70% | 1. FC Köln 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.54 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.505 / defence 0.912 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.724 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.213. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack rating of 1.505 — their 2.54 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. 1. FC Köln's attack rating of 0.724 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 56 games and 1. FC Köln's last 56.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 74% | Draw 17% | 1. FC Köln 9%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.35 | Draw 5.82 | 1. FC Köln 11.57. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (74%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and 1. FC Köln's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 70% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Köln 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 74% | Draw 17% | 1. FC Köln 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.54 / 1. FC Köln 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.505 / def 0.912 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.724 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.80
1. FC Köln xG
52%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 74% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 1.50x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.72x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 56 games and 1. FC Köln's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
74%
1.35
17%
5.82
9%
11.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.34
0.80
1. FC Köln xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.82
17%
Draw
11.57
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
8%
12.72
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
1%
147.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.80 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 24W 11D 21L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
1. FC Köln's form line: 13W 19D 24L from 56 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Köln.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.82 PPG from their last 28 home games (15W 6D 7L).
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 5W 11D 12L from their last 28 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.14 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs 1. FC Köln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 24W 11D 21L in their last 56 games (1.48 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 13W 19D 24L in their last 56 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or 1. FC Köln away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.82 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln, the earliest from February 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
VfB Stuttgart have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won VfB Stuttgart 3-0 1. FC Köln on 18 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 7, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 64%, 1. FC Köln 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (VfB Stuttgart) and 43% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 57% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 43% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 68% of 1. FC Köln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln finished level at 1-1 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.54 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.80 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.50 / defence 0.91 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 74% | Draw 17% | 1. FC Köln 9%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 70%, 1. FC Köln 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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