SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Freiburg (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as SC Freiburg face Werder Bremen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to Europa-Park-Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Werder Bremen's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward SC Freiburg. A 1.00 PPG lead over Werder Bremen (1.40 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours SC Freiburg, who have won 6 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Werder Bremen — Werder Bremen have 1 win, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended SC Freiburg 3–0 Werder Bremen — a SC Freiburg win.
The head-to-head data gives SC Freiburg an edge — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 59% versus Werder Bremen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 67% | Werder Bremen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.91 xG and Werder Bremen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.116 / defence 0.898 | Werder Bremen attack 0.733 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.461. Werder Bremen's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 54 games and Werder Bremen's last 54.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 17%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.72 | Draw 4.03 | Werder Bremen 5.86. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and Werder Bremen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 90% (last 10 home games) | Werder Bremen 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG SC Freiburg 1.91 / Werder Bremen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.116 / def 0.898 | Werder Bremen attack 0.733 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Werder Bremen xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen FAQs
What time does SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
SC Freiburg 1 - 0 Werder Bremen.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen part of?
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 58% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.12) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.73x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from SC Freiburg's last 54 games and Werder Bremen's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.03
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.87
0.96
Werder Bremen xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
39.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.96 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Freiburg come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 13D 18L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Werder Bremen sit at 1.30 PPG from 54 outings (18W 16D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.30 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SC Freiburg's home form reads 14W 6D 6L across their last 26 home games, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Werder Bremen have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 26 away games (10W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.41 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
SC Freiburg (Home) vs Werder Bremen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Freiburg
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Form FAQs
What form are SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 18W 16D 20L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Werder Bremen away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.85 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won SC Freiburg 5-0 Werder Bremen on 21 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Freiburg have won 8, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: SC Freiburg 4-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 77%, Werder Bremen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for SC Freiburg and 69% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SC Freiburg's games and 50% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of SC Freiburg's matches and 69% of Werder Bremen's.
Do SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 81% of Werder Bremen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out Werder Bremen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Werder Bremen 1-0 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.91 xG and Werder Bremen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.12 / defence 0.90 against Werder Bremen attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 17%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 67%, Werder Bremen 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.52 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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