FC Augsburg 1-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host SV Darmstadt 98 at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Augsburg have posted 4W 4D 2L at WWK Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Augsburg at 0.80 PPG versus SV Darmstadt 98's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 62% versus SV Darmstadt 98 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.29 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.943 / defence 1.163 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.762 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.932 / away 1.444. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 FC Augsburg games / 6 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 60% | Draw 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | SV Darmstadt 98 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | SV Darmstadt 98 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 60% | Draw 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Augsburg 2.29 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.943 / def 1.163 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.762 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.932 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
FC Augsburg 1 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 60% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.94x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
60%
1.67
20%
5.08
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.57
1.28
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
10%
9.85
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
2%
48.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.28 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 10W 9D 21L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Darmstadt 98's form line: 21W 8D 11L from 40 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SV Darmstadt 98 are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 9W 2D 9L from 20 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.50 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 21W 8D 11L in their last 40 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.35 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.45 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-6 FC Augsburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 55%, SV Darmstadt 98 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 55% (SV Darmstadt 98).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 45% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 55% of SV Darmstadt 98's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Darmstadt 98 defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat FC Augsburg 1-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.29 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.28 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 60% | Draw 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 20%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a SV Darmstadt 98 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 60%, SV Darmstadt 98 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.