SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.

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Match Analysis

SC Freiburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at Europa-Park-Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SC Freiburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Borussia Mönchengladbach — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Freiburg at 1.40 PPG versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

SC Freiburg hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 5 draws.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended SC Freiburg 0–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives SC Freiburg an edge — 3 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 57% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 66% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.76 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.027 / defence 0.845 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.797 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.397. Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 56 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 56.

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 19%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.80 | Draw 3.91 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.32. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (SC Freiburg 3 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 80% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% (last 10 away games).

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