Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hamburger SV welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Volksparkstadion in Bundesliga (matchday 17). Kick-off is Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hamburger SV have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bayer Leverkusen away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Bayer Leverkusen's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Hamburger SV's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Hamburger SV's games and 60% of Bayer Leverkusen's (from Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Hamburger SV trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 63% and Bayer Leverkusen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 67% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hamburger SV surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Bayer Leverkusen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Bayer Leverkusen surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Hamburger SV recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.38 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.926 / defence 1.017 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.032 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.361. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 23 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 57.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 36% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 38%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.80 | Draw 3.79 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 70% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 17 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 36% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hamburger SV 1.38 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.926 / def 1.017 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.032 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Bayer Leverkusen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Hamburger SV 0 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 17) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 36% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 23 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.79
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.81
1.43
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.43 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 22W 19D 16L from 57 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 10L across 57 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hamburger SV heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 13W 10D 5L from their last 28 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record stands at 14W 10D 4L across their last 28 away games, a 1.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.04 scored and 1.26 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Hamburger SV (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 22W 19D 16L in their last 57 games (1.49 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 31W 16D 10L in their last 57 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.75 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2026. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
1
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hamburger SV at 68%, Bayer Leverkusen at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Hamburger SV and 61% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Hamburger SV's games and 71% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Hamburger SV's matches and 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 93% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out Hamburger SV 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Hamburger SV 0-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.38 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.43 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hamburger SV fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 36% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 38%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 67%, Bayer Leverkusen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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