VfB Stuttgart 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Eintracht Frankfurt at MHPArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at MHPArena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MHPArena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfB Stuttgart at 1.70 PPG versus Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and Eintracht Frankfurt 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | Eintracht Frankfurt 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.90 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.848 / defence 0.987 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.170 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.467. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 VfB Stuttgart games / 50 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.90 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.848 / def 0.987 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.170 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 13 January 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 42% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (8 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 2W | Draws 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt 4W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.14
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.59
1.70
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
8%
12.96
5%
19.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.70 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 23W 10D 17L from 50 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 12L across 50 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.58 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 12W 3D 9L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 10W 8D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 2.02 scored and 1.58 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 23W 10D 17L in their last 50 games (1.58 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 14D 12L in their last 50 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.62 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 58%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for VfB Stuttgart and 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.90 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.70 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.85 / defence 0.99 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.17 / defence 1.31, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 34%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, Eintracht Frankfurt 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.58 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.