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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln finished level at 1-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.70 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.98 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.85 / defence 0.99 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 53% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 21%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 66%, 1. FC Köln 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hamburger SV's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.49 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights