FC St. Pauli 2-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion plays host to FC St. Pauli versus Werder Bremen in Bundesliga (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC St. Pauli's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Werder Bremen (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Werder Bremen's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in FC St. Pauli's favour (1.00 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for FC St. Pauli, 2 for Werder Bremen and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended FC St. Pauli 0–1 Werder Bremen — a Werder Bremen win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 41% versus Werder Bremen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 41% | Werder Bremen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.25 xG and Werder Bremen 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.768 / defence 0.956 | Werder Bremen attack 0.703 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.397. FC St. Pauli's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Werder Bremen's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 56 games and Werder Bremen's last 56.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 42% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 26%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.37 | Draw 3.19 | Werder Bremen 3.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 60% (last 10 home games) | Werder Bremen 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 42% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG FC St. Pauli 1.25 / Werder Bremen 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.768 / def 0.956 | Werder Bremen attack 0.703 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Werder Bremen xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 42% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.70x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 56 games and Werder Bremen's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.19
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.19
0.94
Werder Bremen xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.94 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 12W 13D 31L from 56 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 22L across 56 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.25 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 6W 8D 13L from their last 27 home games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 10W 5D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.36 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs Werder Bremen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 12W 13D 31L in their last 56 games (0.88 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 0.96 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen, the earliest from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 1, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: FC St. Pauli 2-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 37%, Werder Bremen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (FC St. Pauli) and 67% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 56% of games; Werder Bremen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 48% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 67% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 82% of Werder Bremen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out Werder Bremen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Werder Bremen 2-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.25 xG and Werder Bremen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.77 / defence 0.96 against Werder Bremen attack 0.70 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 42% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 26%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 41%, Werder Bremen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 0.88 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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