1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin meet at Voith-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
1. FC Heidenheim's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Berlin (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Union Berlin's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Union Berlin arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours 1. FC Heidenheim, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Union Berlin — Union Berlin have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1 Union Berlin — a 1. FC Heidenheim win.
The head-to-head data gives 1. FC Heidenheim an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 52% versus Union Berlin 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 63% | Union Berlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.57 xG and Union Berlin 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.918 / defence 1.450 | Union Berlin attack 0.743 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.458. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.57. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 1.450 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Berlin's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 62 games and Union Berlin's last 62.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 38% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 38%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.65 | Draw 4.09 | Union Berlin 2.64. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — 1. FC Heidenheim 38% and Union Berlin 38%, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 home games) | Union Berlin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 29 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 38% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.57 / Union Berlin 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.918 / def 1.450 | Union Berlin attack 0.743 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Union Berlin xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 29) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 38% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.74x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 62 games and Union Berlin's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
38%
2.65
24%
4.09
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.14
1.57
Union Berlin xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.57 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 10W 13D 39L from 62 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 25L across 62 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 4W 8D 19L from their last 31 home games — 0.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 9W 6D 16L across their last 31 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.10 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs Union Berlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 13D 39L in their last 62 games (0.69 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 18W 19D 25L in their last 62 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 0.65 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
1. FC Heidenheim have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won Union Berlin 0-3 1. FC Heidenheim on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
0
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 5, Union Berlin have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 48%, Union Berlin 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 48% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 48% of games; Union Berlin in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 42% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 48% of Union Berlin's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 68% of Union Berlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Union Berlin 3-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.57 xG and Union Berlin 1.57 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.92 / defence 1.45 against Union Berlin attack 0.74 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 38% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 38%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 63%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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