1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 1W 4D 5L at Voith-Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
SC Freiburg arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Heidenheim lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with SC Freiburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 48% versus SC Freiburg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 61% | SC Freiburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG and SC Freiburg 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.757 / defence 1.158 | SC Freiburg attack 0.852 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.445. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 1. FC Heidenheim games / 46 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 39%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | SC Freiburg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 / SC Freiburg 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.757 / def 1.158 | SC Freiburg attack 0.852 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SC Freiburg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg?
1. FC Heidenheim 2 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 34% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 1W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 2W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.85x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.75
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.75
1.43
SC Freiburg xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
8%
12.13
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.43 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 46 games, going 9W 8D 29L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.54 PPG from 46 outings (20W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 3W 5D 15L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.61 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.48 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 9W 8D 29L in their last 46 games (0.76 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 20W 11D 15L in their last 46 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 0.61 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.30 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-3 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
3
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 44%, SC Freiburg 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 52% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 44%; 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 52% of games; SC Freiburg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 39% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 52% of SC Freiburg's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Heidenheim defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SC Freiburg 2-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG and SC Freiburg 1.43 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against SC Freiburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 39%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 61%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.