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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SC Freiburg face Borussia Dortmund.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as SC Freiburg welcome Borussia Dortmund to Europa-Park-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 December 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SC Freiburg at Europa-Park-Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SC Freiburg's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 8 encounters against SC Freiburg's 1 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 4.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–4 with Borussia Dortmund winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 57% versus Borussia Dortmund 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 68% | Borussia Dortmund 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.44 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.138 / defence 0.936 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.123 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.403. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 SC Freiburg games / 47 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 36% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 38%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Dortmund 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 90% | Borussia Dortmund 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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