SC Freiburg 1-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SC Freiburg face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as SC Freiburg welcome Borussia Dortmund to Europa-Park-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 December 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg at Europa-Park-Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SC Freiburg's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 8 encounters against SC Freiburg's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 4.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–4 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 57% versus Borussia Dortmund 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 68% | Borussia Dortmund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.44 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.138 / defence 0.936 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.123 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.403. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 SC Freiburg games / 47 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 36% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 38%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Dortmund 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 90% | Borussia Dortmund 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 36% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG SC Freiburg 1.44 / Borussia Dortmund 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.138 / def 0.936 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.123 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 36% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (8 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 7W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.14x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
36%
2.75
26%
3.89
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.91
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
9%
11.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.48 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 20W 11D 16L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 25W 10D 12L from 47 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.51 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 10W 4D 9L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 25W 10D 12L in their last 47 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.78 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.48 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 74%, Borussia Dortmund at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for SC Freiburg and 61% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of SC Freiburg's games and 70% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of SC Freiburg's matches and 61% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.44 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.12 / defence 0.73, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 36% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 38%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 68%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.51 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.