🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Union Berlin at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

VfL Wolfsburg host Union Berlin at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

VfL Wolfsburg's home record at Volkswagen Arena: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form points away from home here. Union Berlin's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of VfL Wolfsburg's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, Union Berlin 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Union Berlin winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Union Berlin in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 67% versus Union Berlin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 59% | Union Berlin 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.30 xG and Union Berlin 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.815 / defence 1.300 | Union Berlin attack 0.842 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.445. Data: 46 VfL Wolfsburg games / 46 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 31% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 43%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Union Berlin 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 60% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights