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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Augsburg face Bayer Leverkusen.

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Full Analysis

WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 6 December 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bayer Leverkusen in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across the last 8 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to FC Augsburg's 2, with 0 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 52% and Bayer Leverkusen 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 59% | Bayer Leverkusen 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.45 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.792 / defence 1.331 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.269 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.445. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — the away xG of 2.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 FC Augsburg games / 46 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 21% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 59%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 4.76 | Draw 5.00 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 2.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.89 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 80% BTTS from recent games.

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