FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Augsburg face Eintracht Frankfurt.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Eintracht Frankfurt travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg in Bundesliga (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, FC Augsburg have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Eintracht Frankfurt — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 1.40 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, FC Augsburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 3, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended FC Augsburg 0–1 Eintracht Frankfurt — a Eintracht Frankfurt win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 53% and Eintracht Frankfurt 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | Eintracht Frankfurt 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.72 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.902 / defence 1.103 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.041 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.464. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 64 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 64.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 40% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.53 | Draw 4.42 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.72 / 1.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 50% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights