SC Paderborn 07 0-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as SC Paderborn 07 welcome VfB Stuttgart to Home Deluxe Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 6W 2D 2L at Home Deluxe Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Paderborn 07 1.20 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 60% and VfB Stuttgart 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 60% | VfB Stuttgart 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.82 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.814 / defence 1.024 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.048 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 2.010 / away 1.423. Data: 4 SC Paderborn 07 games / 38 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 44% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | VfB Stuttgart 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 90% | VfB Stuttgart 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 44% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.82 / VfB Stuttgart 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.814 / def 1.024 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.048 / def 1.112 | league avg home 2.010 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
SC Paderborn 07 0 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 44% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.19
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.35
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
5%
19.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.53 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 9D 10L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.71 PPG from 38 outings (19W 8D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.74 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 11W 3D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfB Stuttgart's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.03 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.89 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
SC Paderborn 07
0
Draws
1
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart?
From 1 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 0, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 0-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 79%, VfB Stuttgart at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for SC Paderborn 07 and 100% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 84% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 100% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat SC Paderborn 07 0-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.82 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.05 / defence 1.11, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 44% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 32%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 60%, VfB Stuttgart 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.74 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.