Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deutsche Bank Park plays host to Eintracht Frankfurt versus SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.20 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 76% and SC Paderborn 07 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 71% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.86 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.888 / defence 1.329 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.594 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 2.006 / away 1.400. Data: 38 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 4 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 54% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 22%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 4.55. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 54% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.86 / SC Paderborn 07 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.888 / def 1.329 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.594 / def 1.045 | league avg home 2.006 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.10
SC Paderborn 07 xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Deutsche Bank Park.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 54% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.89) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.59x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.21
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.97
1.10
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
3%
29.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.10 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 12W 13D 13L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 19W 9D 10L from 38 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 8W 6D 5L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.61 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 12W 13D 13L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.37 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.58 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 63%, SC Paderborn 07 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 47% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 47%; SC Paderborn 07 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 42% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.