Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Eintracht Frankfurt face SC Paderborn 07.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Deutsche Bank Park plays host to Eintracht Frankfurt versus SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SC Paderborn 07's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

SC Paderborn 07's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.30 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2026, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 72% and SC Paderborn 07 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | SC Paderborn 07 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Eintracht Frankfurt surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while SC Paderborn 07 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.63 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.940 / defence 1.073 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.642 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.358. SC Paderborn 07's attack rating of 0.642 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 43 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 9.

Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 54% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 22%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.86 | Draw 4.04 | SC Paderborn 07 4.62. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights