SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host Bayer Leverkusen at Home Deluxe Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Home Deluxe Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 1.70 (Bayer Leverkusen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 61% and Bayer Leverkusen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 58% | Bayer Leverkusen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.76 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.089 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.987 / away 1.333. Data: 1 SC Paderborn 07 games / 35 Bayer Leverkusen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 40% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 36%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 90% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 40% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.76 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.089 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.987 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Bayer Leverkusen xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 40% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.86) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.12
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.43
1.67
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
7%
13.34
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.67 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 18W 9D 9L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 18W 8D 10L from 36 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.75 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.06 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 9L in their last 36 games (1.75 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.83 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.56 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 25%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 78%, Bayer Leverkusen at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for SC Paderborn 07 and 67% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.