Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Borussia Mönchengladbach face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach host Bayer Leverkusen at Borussia-Park in Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bayer Leverkusen — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bayer Leverkusen's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bayer Leverkusen are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Bayer Leverkusen have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches against 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 Bayer Leverkusen — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 6 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% versus Bayer Leverkusen 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | Bayer Leverkusen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.863 / defence 1.159 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.156 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.436. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 54 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 53.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 52%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.20 | Draw 4.07 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.94. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.26 / 1.92) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 30% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.863 / def 1.159 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.156 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Bayer Leverkusen xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 24% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (0.86) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 54 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
24%
4.20
25%
4.07
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.19
1.92
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.20
24%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
3%
28.76
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.92 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 12D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.96 PPG from 53 outings (30W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across their last 26 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.96 points per game from their last 26 away games (14W 9D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.08 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 66%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 30W 14D 9L in their last 53 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.27 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Aug 2021, when Bayer Leverkusen won Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 46%, Bayer Leverkusen 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 65% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 73% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 92% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 21, as Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.16 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 52%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%, Bayer Leverkusen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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