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Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SC Freiburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat SC Freiburg 4-0 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.00 xG and SC Freiburg 1.01 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.19 / defence 0.85 against SC Freiburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 18%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 64%, SC Freiburg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.89 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights