Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 60% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

SC Freiburg travel to Signal Iduna Park to take on Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Dortmund stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.90 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage across the 9 H2H matches in our data, with 7 wins compared to 1 for SC Freiburg and 1 draw.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Borussia Dortmund 1–1 SC Freiburg — a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals — 7 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 4.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Borussia Dortmund trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

SC Freiburg trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 61% versus SC Freiburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 64% | SC Freiburg 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.00 xG and SC Freiburg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.188 / defence 0.854 | SC Freiburg attack 0.812 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.452. Data: built from Borussia Dortmund's last 64 games and SC Freiburg's last 64.

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 18%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.67 | Draw 4.49 | SC Freiburg 5.61. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Borussia Dortmund 7 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Dortmund's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Borussia Dortmund 40% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 50% (last 10 away games).

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