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Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FSV Mainz 05.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat FSV Mainz 05 4-0 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.26 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.20 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FSV Mainz 05 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.29 / defence 0.86 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 18%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 64%, FSV Mainz 05 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights