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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Fri 13 Feb 2026

19:30

Venue

Signal Iduna Park

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Borussia Dortmund Win

60%

Borussia Dortmund

1.66

22%

Draw

4.59

18%

FSV Mainz 05

5.56

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.5%

Draw

2 – 0

8.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.26

Borussia Dortmund xG

Total xG

3.46

1.20

FSV Mainz 05 xG

60%
22%
18%
Borussia DortmundDrawFSV Mainz 05

1.66

60%

Home win

4.59

22%

Draw

5.56

18%

Away win

Goals Markets

86%

Over 1.5

1.16

14%

Under 1.5

7.14

67%

Over 2.5

1.49

33%

Under 2.5

3.03

45%

Over 3.5

2.22

55%

Under 3.5

1.82

27%

Over 4.5

3.70

73%

Under 4.5

1.37

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

64%

BTTS Yes

1.57

36%

BTTS No

2.75

Clean Sheet

30%

Borussia Dortmund

3.31

10%

FSV Mainz 05

9.60

Win to Nil

18%

Borussia Dortmund

5.50

2%

FSV Mainz 05

53.35

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.1 3.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
1 7.1 8.5 5.1 2.0 0.6 0.1
2 8.0 9.6 5.8 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 6.1 7.3 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.1
4 3.4 4.1 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.262
λ Away (xG) 1.197
Total xG 3.459
League avg home goals 1.643
League avg away goals 1.427
Borussia Dortmund attack strength 1.287
Borussia Dortmund defence strength 0.865
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.969
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 1.069
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 55 / 55