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Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat FC Augsburg 2-0 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.46 xG and FC Augsburg 1.06 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against FC Augsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 68% | Draw 18% | FC Augsburg 14%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 66%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights