Bayern München 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayern München (81%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bayern München face Eintracht Frankfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt make the trip to Allianz Arena to face Bayern München in Bundesliga (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Bayern München's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 3.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bayern München's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Bayern München's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Bayern München's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Bayern München's games and 90% of Eintracht Frankfurt's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Bayern München, who have won 5 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against Eintracht Frankfurt — Eintracht Frankfurt have 2 wins, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Bayern München 3–0 Eintracht Frankfurt — a Bayern München win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bayern München and goals — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Bayern München half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayern München 55% and Eintracht Frankfurt 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayern München 86% | Eintracht Frankfurt 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 4.20 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.821 / defence 0.943 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.197 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.388. Bayern München carry an above-average attack rating of 1.821 — their 4.20 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating of 1.360 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bayern München's projected output up. Data: built from Bayern München's last 56 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 56.
Result probabilities: Bayern München 81% | Draw 10% | Eintracht Frankfurt 8%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.23 | Draw 9.86 | Eintracht Frankfurt 11.76. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (81%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 93% | BTTS Yes probability 78% | Total xG 5.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 93% — a total xG of 5.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% — both xG figures (4.20 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 81% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 5.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 93% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bayern München's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 4.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 78% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bayern München 70% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Frankfurt 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Allianz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 81% | Draw 10% | Eintracht Frankfurt 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 93% (Under 7%) | BTTS Yes 78% (No 22%) | xG Bayern München 4.20 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.821 / def 0.943 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.197 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
4.20
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
78%
BTTS
98%
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
83%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt FAQs
What time does Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Allianz Arena.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Bayern München 3 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Arena.
What competition is Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 81% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 8% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 93%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bayern München's attack rating (1.82) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 4.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.20x) against Bayern München's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from Bayern München's last 56 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 4-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 6.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (6.1%), 5-1 (5.3%). Even combined, the top three scorelines only cover 18% of the total probability — the model sees a wide spread of plausible outcomes rather than one clear shape to the game.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
81%
1.23
10%
9.86
8%
11.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
4 – 1
6.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.1%
Home win
5 – 1
5.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
4.20
Bayern München xG
Total xG
5.77
1.57
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.23
81%
Home win
9.86
10%
Draw
11.76
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
98%
Over 1.5
1.02
2%
Under 1.5
50.00
93%
Over 2.5
1.08
7%
Under 2.5
14.29
83%
Over 3.5
1.20
17%
Under 3.5
5.88
68%
Over 4.5
1.47
32%
Under 4.5
3.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.59
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
1%
66.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 4-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.4%.
How many goals are Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 4.20 expected goals for Bayern München and 1.57 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 5.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Bayern München have picked up 2.48 PPG on a 43W 10D 3L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 25W 16D 15L from 56 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bayern München have posted 2.57 PPG from their last 28 home games (23W 3D 2L).
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 10W 10D 8L from their last 28 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayern München are averaging 3.23 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 2.00 scored and 1.64 conceded. Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking output running into Bayern München's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 68%.
Defensively: Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Bayern München (Home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bayern München
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt Form FAQs
What form are Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 43W 10D 3L in their last 56 games (2.48 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 25W 16D 15L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Bayern München's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 2.57 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Bayern München or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Bayern München have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayern München won Eintracht Frankfurt 1-6 Bayern München on 5 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayern München have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayern München
2
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bayern München have won 6, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Bayern München 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayern München 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Bayern München and 64% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bayern München vs Eintracht Frankfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bayern München's games and 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Bayern München's matches and 64% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Bayern München and Eintracht Frankfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Bayern München's recent matches and 89% of Eintracht Frankfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 4.20 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.57 xG, a combined 5.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bayern München fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.82 / defence 0.94 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.20 / defence 1.36, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 81% | Draw 10% | Eintracht Frankfurt 8%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 93%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 98% and landed. Over 3.5 was 83% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 86%, Eintracht Frankfurt 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.62. Form held, and they took the win. Bayern München (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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