Bayer Leverkusen 6-3 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bayer Leverkusen face VfL Wolfsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
VfL Wolfsburg travel to BayArena to take on Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
VfL Wolfsburg — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Wolfsburg away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Bayer Leverkusen are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Bayer Leverkusen: 5 wins from 9 H2H matches against 1 for VfL Wolfsburg, with 3 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Bayer Leverkusen 3–1 VfL Wolfsburg — a Bayer Leverkusen win.
The head-to-head data gives Bayer Leverkusen an edge — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 66% and VfL Wolfsburg 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 59% | VfL Wolfsburg 62%). Note also that VfL Wolfsburg surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Bayer Leverkusen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.19 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.076 / defence 0.782 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.866 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.393. VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bayer Leverkusen's projected output up. Bayer Leverkusen have a tight defence (rating 0.782), which is pulling VfL Wolfsburg's projected output down. Data: built from Bayer Leverkusen's last 61 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 61.
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 66% | Draw 19% | VfL Wolfsburg 15%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.52 | Draw 5.15 | VfL Wolfsburg 6.69. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (66%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bayer Leverkusen 40% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 28 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 66% | Draw 19% | VfL Wolfsburg 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.19 / VfL Wolfsburg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.076 / def 0.782 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.866 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
0.94
VfL Wolfsburg xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQs
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen 6 - 3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 28) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 66% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bayer Leverkusen's attack rating (1.08) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bayer Leverkusen's last 61 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.15
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.13
0.94
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
11%
8.94
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
2%
59.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.94 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 61 games, going 32W 19D 10L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.05 PPG from 61 outings (16W 16D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 17W 7D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 30 away games (11W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.49 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 70%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen (Home) vs VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg Form FAQs
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 32W 19D 10L in their last 61 games (1.89 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 16D 29L in their last 61 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.93 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Apr 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen won Bayer Leverkusen 6-3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
3
Draws
1
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Bayer Leverkusen 6-3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 60%, VfL Wolfsburg 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 60% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 63% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 60% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 70% of VfL Wolfsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 6-3 hammering of VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat VfL Wolfsburg 6-3 at BayArena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.19 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 0.94 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 6-3 for 9 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.08 / defence 0.78 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.87 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 66% | Draw 19% | VfL Wolfsburg 15%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 59%, VfL Wolfsburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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