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Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC St. Pauli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat FC St. Pauli 4-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.77 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.99 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC St. Pauli landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 54% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 19%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 61%, FC St. Pauli 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights