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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Sat 14 Feb 2026

14:30

Venue

BayArena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bayer Leverkusen Win

54%

Bayer Leverkusen

1.85

26%

Draw

3.78

19%

FC St. Pauli

5.14

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

11.2%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.1%

Draw

2 – 0

9.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.77

Bayer Leverkusen xG

Total xG

2.76

0.99

FC St. Pauli xG

54%
26%
19%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawFC St. Pauli

1.85

54%

Home win

3.78

26%

Draw

5.14

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.86

46%

BTTS No

2.16

Clean Sheet

37%

Bayer Leverkusen

2.70

17%

FC St. Pauli

5.87

Win to Nil

20%

Bayer Leverkusen

4.98

3%

FC St. Pauli

30.18

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.3 6.3 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
1 11.2 11.1 5.5 1.8 0.5 0.1
2 9.9 9.8 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 5.8 5.8 2.9 0.9 0.2
4 2.6 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
5 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.770
λ Away (xG) 0.992
Total xG 2.762
League avg home goals 1.657
League avg away goals 1.415
Bayer Leverkusen attack strength 1.057
Bayer Leverkusen defence strength 0.892
FC St. Pauli attack strength 0.786
FC St. Pauli defence strength 1.011
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 54 / 55