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Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out 1. FC Köln 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Köln 1-2 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.23 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.87 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 0.82, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 25% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 52%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 55%, Borussia Dortmund 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights