SV Wehen 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SV Wehen at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Wehen face 1. FC Nürnberg.

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Analysis

1. FC Nürnberg make the trip to BRITA-Arena to face SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Friday 9 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

SV Wehen (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, SV Wehen have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

1. FC Nürnberg have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for SV Wehen, 1.30 for 1. FC Nürnberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SV Wehen's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) — SV Wehen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, 1. FC Nürnberg edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended SV Wehen 1–2 1. FC Nürnberg — a 1. FC Nürnberg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

SV Wehen — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 59% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 46% | 1. FC Nürnberg 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.61 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.852 / defence 1.076 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.911 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.396. Data: built from SV Wehen's last 20 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 54.

Result probabilities: SV Wehen 43% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Nürnberg 33%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 2.31 | Draw 4.13 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Wehen at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Wehen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Wehen's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Wehen 60% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% (last 10 away games).

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