FC Schalke 04 1-0 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Schalke 04 face SV Wehen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Schalke 04 welcome SV Wehen to Arena AufSchalke in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Schalke 04 — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, FC Schalke 04 have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, SV Wehen have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, SV Wehen have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Schalke 04 at 1.30 PPG versus SV Wehen's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for FC Schalke 04, 0 for SV Wehen and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended FC Schalke 04 1–1 SV Wehen — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Schalke 04 trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
SV Wehen trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Schalke 04 61% and SV Wehen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 70% | SV Wehen 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Schalke 04 surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while SV Wehen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.51 xG and SV Wehen 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.923 / defence 1.092 | SV Wehen attack 0.863 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.374. Data: built from FC Schalke 04's last 21 games and SV Wehen's last 21.
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 42% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.37 | Draw 3.97 | SV Wehen 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Schalke 04 at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Schalke 04's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Schalke 04 50% (last 10 home games) | SV Wehen 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Arena AufSchalke • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 42% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG FC Schalke 04 1.51 / SV Wehen 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.923 / def 1.092 | SV Wehen attack 0.863 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SV Wehen xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen FAQs
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Arena AufSchalke.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen?
FC Schalke 04 1 - 0 SV Wehen.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Arena AufSchalke.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 42% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Schalke 04's attack rating (0.92) and SV Wehen's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Wehen's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Schalke 04's last 21 games and SV Wehen's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
42%
2.37
25%
3.97
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
2.80
1.29
SV Wehen xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.29 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, FC Schalke 04 have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 7W 3D 13L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
SV Wehen's form line: 9W 6D 8L from 23 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Schalke 04 on 1.04 PPG, SV Wehen on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Schalke 04 have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 11 home games (5W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — FC Schalke 04 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SV Wehen have gone 3W 2D 6L from their last 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Wehen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.35 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; SV Wehen in 61%.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
FC Schalke 04 (Home) vs SV Wehen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Schalke 04
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen Form FAQs
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 7W 3D 13L in their last 23 games (1.04 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 9W 6D 8L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or SV Wehen away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.55 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Schalke 04
1
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, SV Wehen have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: FC Schalke 04 1-0 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 54%, SV Wehen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (FC Schalke 04) and 46% (SV Wehen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Wehen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Schalke 04's recent matches and 54% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 46% of SV Wehen's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of FC Schalke 04's recent matches and 64% of SV Wehen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out SV Wehen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat SV Wehen 1-0 at Arena AufSchalke, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.51 xG and SV Wehen 1.29 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Wehen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against SV Wehen attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 42% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 33%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 70%, SV Wehen 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Wehen's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.04 PPG, SV Wehen 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More 2. Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 22
All 2. Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →