Karlsruher SC 2-2 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BBBank Wildpark plays host to Karlsruher SC versus SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Karlsruher SC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karlsruher SC's home record at BBBank Wildpark: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Wehen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Wehen have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Karlsruher SC against 1.60 for SV Wehen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Karlsruher SC 0W, SV Wehen 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with SV Wehen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Karlsruher SC — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
SV Wehen — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karlsruher SC 71% and SV Wehen 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karlsruher SC 67% | SV Wehen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.68 xG and SV Wehen 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 1.063 / defence 1.107 | SV Wehen attack 0.797 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.373. Data: 53 Karlsruher SC games / 19 SV Wehen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 48% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 28%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | SV Wehen 3.57. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karlsruher SC 60% | SV Wehen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: BBBank Wildpark • Kick-off: Friday 2 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 48% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Karlsruher SC 1.68 / SV Wehen 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Karlsruher SC attack 1.063 / def 1.107 | SV Wehen attack 0.797 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Karlsruher SC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
SV Wehen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen kick off?
Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 2 February 2024 at BBBank Wildpark.
What was the final score in Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen?
Karlsruher SC 2 - 2 SV Wehen.
Where is Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at BBBank Wildpark.
What competition is Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen part of?
Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives Karlsruher SC a 48% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen will score (BTTS).
Will Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen?
Record (1 meetings): Karlsruher SC 0W | Draws 0 | SV Wehen 1W.
What form are Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen in?
Karlsruher SC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. SV Wehen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Karlsruher SC's attack rating (1.06) and SV Wehen's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.80x) against Karlsruher SC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
48%
2.06
24%
4.16
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Karlsruher SC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.21
SV Wehen xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.21 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karlsruher SC come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 7D 6L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Wehen sit at 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Karlsruher SC against 1.48 for SV Wehen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Karlsruher SC's home form reads 6W 3D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Karlsruher SC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SV Wehen have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.33 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karlsruher SC
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
Karlsruher SC have gone 8W 7D 6L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 9W 4D 8L in their last 21 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karlsruher SC at home or SV Wehen away?
Karlsruher SC's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karlsruher SC at home: 1.91 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Karlsruher SC
1
Draws
1
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen?
From 2 meetings on record, Karlsruher SC have won 0, SV Wehen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Karlsruher SC 2-2 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen?
SV Wehen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karlsruher SC 54%, SV Wehen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Karlsruher SC) and 46% (SV Wehen).
On the defensive side: SV Wehen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karlsruher SC home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karlsruher SC play SV Wehen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Karlsruher SC's recent matches and 54% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Karlsruher SC's recent games and 46% of SV Wehen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen tend to score early?
Karlsruher SC have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, SV Wehen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 20, as Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.68 xG and SV Wehen 1.21 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against SV Wehen attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 48% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 28%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 67%, SV Wehen 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
SV Wehen's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.48 PPG, SV Wehen 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Wehen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.