Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Düsseldorf Arena plays host to Fortuna Düsseldorf versus SV Elversberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 4W 2D 4L at Düsseldorf Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Elversberg (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.30 for SV Elversberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Düsseldorf register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, SV Elversberg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Düsseldorf lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 5–0 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 65% and SV Elversberg 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Düsseldorf 65% | SV Elversberg 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.10 xG and SV Elversberg 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.021 / defence 1.171 | SV Elversberg attack 0.930 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.420. SV Elversberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 20 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | Draw 21% | SV Elversberg 28%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.00 | Draw 4.76 | SV Elversberg 3.57. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 80% | SV Elversberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | Draw 21% | SV Elversberg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.10 / SV Elversberg 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.021 / def 1.171 | SV Elversberg attack 0.930 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.55
SV Elversberg xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 1 SV Elversberg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 50% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 0 | SV Elversberg 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.02x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (0.93x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
50%
1.98
21%
4.70
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.65
1.55
SV Elversberg xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
3%
28.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.55 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 9W 4D 7L from 20 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 8L across 20 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 1.40 for SV Elversberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 4W 2D 4L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 4W 2D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.55 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; SV Elversberg in 70%.
Last 20 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 9W 4D 7L in their last 20 games (1.55 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SV Elversberg away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.40 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-5 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SV Elversberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
2
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, SV Elversberg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 80% for SV Elversberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 70% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 80% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 70% of SV Elversberg's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.10 xG and SV Elversberg 1.55 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against SV Elversberg attack 0.93 / defence 1.24, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | Draw 21% | SV Elversberg 28%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 65%, SV Elversberg 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.55 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.