SV Sandhausen 0-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Hamburger SV (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SV Sandhausen face Hamburger SV.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV meet at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Sandhausen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Sandhausen's home record at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald: 1W 3D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hamburger SV have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Hamburger SV are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hamburger SV in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SV Sandhausen, 2 for Hamburger SV and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–4 with Hamburger SV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Sandhausen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Sandhausen 63% and Hamburger SV 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 57% | Hamburger SV 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.43 xG and Hamburger SV 2.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.785 / defence 1.446 | Hamburger SV attack 1.343 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.354. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hamburger SV have an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — the away xG of 2.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 SV Sandhausen games / 67 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 19% | Draw 18% | Hamburger SV 63%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 5.26 | Draw 5.56 | Hamburger SV 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 2.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.06 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 60% | Hamburger SV 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 19% | Draw 18% | Hamburger SV 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 71% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.43 / Hamburger SV 2.63 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.785 / def 1.446 | Hamburger SV attack 1.343 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
2.63
Hamburger SV xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV?
SV Sandhausen 0 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV part of?
SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 19% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 63% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV?
Record (3 meetings): SV Sandhausen 0W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 2W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SV Sandhausen's attack rating (0.79) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.34x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 2.63.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.5%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
19%
5.21
18%
5.69
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.5%
Away win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
4.06
2.63
Hamburger SV xG
5.21
19%
Home win
5.69
18%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
7%
13.86
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
1%
72.15
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 2.63 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Sandhausen come into this having played 67 games, going 17W 18D 32L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.82 PPG from 67 outings (35W 17D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Sandhausen's home form reads 8W 9D 16L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.64 points per game from 33 outings (15W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.99 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 61%.
Last 67 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 17W 18D 32L in their last 67 games (1.03 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 35W 17D 15L in their last 67 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 1.00 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Hamburger SV have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SV Sandhausen
1
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when SV Sandhausen 0-1 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 61%, Hamburger SV 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (SV Sandhausen) and 48% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SV Sandhausen's games and 58% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of SV Sandhausen's recent games and 48% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out SV Sandhausen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SV Sandhausen 0-1 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.43 xG and Hamburger SV 2.63 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Sandhausen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hamburger SV landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.79 / defence 1.45 against Hamburger SV attack 1.34 / defence 1.17, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 19% | Draw 18% | Hamburger SV 63%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 57%, Hamburger SV 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.