SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-0 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SV Darmstadt 98 are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% and SV Darmstadt 98 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63% | SV Darmstadt 98 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.03 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.879 / defence 1.029 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.952 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.354. SV Darmstadt 98's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 67 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 29% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 43%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 29% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.03 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.879 / def 1.029 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.952 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.33
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4 - 0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 29% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 0W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.88) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
29%
3.45
28%
3.63
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.35
1.33
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.33 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 12W 20D 35L from 67 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 38W 13D 16L across 67 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Darmstadt 98 by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 10W 12D 11L from 33 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 17W 5D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.81 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 20D 35L in their last 67 games (0.84 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 38W 13D 16L in their last 67 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.27 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.70 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, SV Darmstadt 98 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 58% (SV Darmstadt 98).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 58% of SV Darmstadt 98's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SpVgg Greuther Fürth run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SV Darmstadt 98 4-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.03 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.33 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.95 / defence 0.75, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 29% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 43%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%, SV Darmstadt 98 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.