SC Paderborn 07 0-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 77%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward SC Paderborn 07. A 0.50 PPG lead over 1. FC Nürnberg (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 1W, 1. FC Nürnberg 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 60% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 66% | 1. FC Nürnberg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.98 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.511 / defence 0.973 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.753 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.354. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.511 — their λ of 2.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 SC Paderborn 07 games / 67 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 77% | Draw 13% | 1. FC Nürnberg 9%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.30 | Draw 7.69 | 1. FC Nürnberg 11.11. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.98 / 0.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SC Paderborn 07 60% | 1. FC Nürnberg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 77% | Draw 13% | 1. FC Nürnberg 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 60% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.98 / 1. FC Nürnberg 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.511 / def 0.973 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.753 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.98
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
0.99
1. FC Nürnberg xG
60%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SC Paderborn 07 0 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 77% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 9% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (3 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.98. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.75x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
77%
1.29
13%
7.58
9%
10.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.98
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.97
0.99
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.29
77%
Home win
7.58
13%
Draw
10.63
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
5%
19.69
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.98 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 0.99 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 29W 19D 19L from 67 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 26L across 67 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.30 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 16W 7D 10L from 33 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 8W 11D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.19 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 67 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 29W 19D 19L in their last 67 games (1.58 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 23W 18D 26L in their last 67 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.67 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.06 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 64%, 1. FC Nürnberg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SC Paderborn 07 and 61% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 52% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 61% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Nürnberg defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SC Paderborn 07 0-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.98 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.99 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Paderborn 07 fell 3.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.51 / defence 0.97 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.75 / defence 1.27, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 77% | Draw 13% | 1. FC Nürnberg 9%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Nürnberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 66%, 1. FC Nürnberg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.58 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.